Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market

Market and Economics Nick Melzer, JD September 3, 2024

Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analyticssaid:

“They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.”

But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller?

Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters

The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact.

When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening.

As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out:

“Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.”

And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.”

The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates

Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie MaeMBANAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedSo, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers:

1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect

For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house.

If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate.

2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity

For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move.

What Should You Do?

While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening.

And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTreesums it up well:

“Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.”

Bottom Line

The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, though gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, let’s connect. That way you’ll be prepared to take action when the time is right for you.


Recent Blog Posts

Real Estate 4-1-1

Only an Expert Agent Can Give You an Accurate Value of Your Home

In today’s digital age, it’s tempting to rely on automated tools for everything — including figuring out how much your house is worth. But be careful. The automated es… Read more

Market and Economics

Should You Sell Your House or Rent It Out?

Recent data from Zillow shows about two-thirds (66%) of sellers thought about renting their home before listing, with nearly a third (28%) taking that possibility seri… Read more

Foothills Community Resources

Support Local: Why Small Business Saturday Matters & Our Top Picks in the Foothills

Supporting small businesses goes beyond economics; it strengthens our community. Here are some of our favorite local businesses in the Denver foothills. Whether you’re… Read more

Market and Economics

National Real Estate Insight: October 2024 Review

Market and Economics

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Real Estate 4-1-1

Why Your House Will Shine in Today’s Market

Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from. So, know … Read more

Real Estate 4-1-1

Planning To Sell Your House in 2025? Start Prepping Now

If your goal is to sell your house in 2025, now’s the time to start prepping. Even though it might seem like there’s plenty of time between now and the new year, you s… Read more

Market and Economics

What To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025

Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025? The good news is that experts are offering some promising forecasts, especially when it comes to two key fact… Read more

Market and Economics

Why Now’s Not the Time To Take Your House Off the Market

Has your house been sitting on the market longer than expected? If so, you’re bound to be frustrated by now. Maybe you’re even thinking it’s time to pull the listing a… Read more

Work With Nick

As a former attorney, he knows what it means to represent a client zealously, competently, loyally, and with their best interests at heart and he firmly believes that everybody deserves that type of service from their real estate agent too.